Rising demand and low charges of latest development are pushing common senior residing occupancy up because the business creeps ever-closer to a provide disaster down the highway.
Occupancy throughout the 31 major markets the Nationwide Funding Middle for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC) tracks grew to 89.1% within the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 0.4 share level improve in comparison with the third quarter of the 12 months.
Common impartial residing common occupancy exceeded 90% and assisted residing reached 87.7% within the fourth quarter of 2025. Lively grownup reached a median occupancy fee of about 92% within the fourth quarter.
The entire variety of occupied models elevated from an estimated 630,000 within the third quarter of 2025 to almost 635,000 within the fourth quarter, in keeping with the report, representing a virtually 20,000-unit, or 3%, improve in comparison with 2024.
Throughout the 31 markets NIC tracks, seven exceeded 90% occupancy charges within the fourth quarter, up from 5 within the third quarter of 2025. The very best performing markets have been Boston (93.1%), San Francisco (91.9%) and Baltimore (91.9%). Moreover, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Dallas and Chicago are approaching their highest occupancy ranges since NIC MAP started monitoring the information in 2005.
Solely 5 markets had occupancy under 87%, with the underside three being Miami (85.4%), Atlanta (85.5%) and San Jose (86.1%).
Occupancy is trending excessive sufficient that residents might begin having hassle discovering a unit of their selection within the months and years forward, , in keeping with Lisa McCracken, NIC’s head of analysis and analytics. With out extra choices out there, different corporations exterior the business might attempt to serve older adults in comparable methods.
“We anticipate that the occupancy features will proceed. The fourth quarter occupancy development was a bit of smaller than anticipated, however the absorption ranges remained excessive and we really feel that the demand shall be with us for the foreseeable future,” McCracken mentioned. “This shall be attention-grabbing to watch in subsequent quarters.”
New stock development remained under 1% of whole stock for the third consecutive quarter and only one,900 new models opened within the fourth quarter, in keeping with the report.
The report additionally notes middle-income older adults are essentially the most impacted by present supply-demand dynamics, as newly developed communities lean towards higher-income residents because of elevated development and improvement prices.
“A 200 foundation level achieve in a single calendar 12 months is a strong fee of development that exhibits no indicators of slowing,” Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP, mentioned within the launch. “Absent new provide coming into the market, it’s seemingly that many markets will start to register all-time highs within the near- and medium-term.”
